The United States is undergoing a social and political struggle to maintain it’s dominance over the Western Hemisphere. In Latin America, the U.S.’s closest neighbors are experiencing social unrest and political movements that threaten to remove the leadership most supportive of American policies in the region. Mexico, a long time ally and trading partner of the U.S. may lose its right leaning leadership and fall into the hands of populist movements springing up in almost every one of its troubled southern states. Mexico is now closer than in any other period in modern history to a social and economic revolution, if successful, may result in a leftist government. The sociological and socioeconomic questions posed are; what effects will the civil unrest, if any have on Mexican immigrants living and working in the U.S? What impact if any will this crisis have on American economic interests in Mexico? Is the U.S. willing to commit to military intervention to quell the crisis in Mexico, and if so what are the implications of such an action?

     The situation growing into a crisis in Mexico is one of class struggle between the upper class, affluent elite families who have historically enjoyed unchallenged control of Mexican society and economics versus the hard working lower class whose social and economic ambitions have not been realized while there political awareness and activism has expanded. Ultimately this society, fragile as it is, in Mexico is entering a period of social transition and the results will undoubtedly spill over into its closest neighbor, namely the U.S.A. It is important to this field of study because of the social and cultural links between the Southwestern United States and its large Mexican communities and their growing influence on American Society.

      The results of the latest presidential election has polarized both class and political parties right down the middle between the right leaning Felipe Calderon of President Vicente Foxes own party the National Action Party (PAN) and his leftist counterpart Lopez Obrador the former mayor of Mexico City representing the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). The allegations of fraudulent practices and a corrupted election court have since resulted in a call for a recount and secret inauguration for a disputed presidential victor. At this point the losing candidate has threatened to set up a second government operating independently of Mexico’s central government in its seven most southern states.  

      The situation has been compounded by a teacher led uprising in one of Mexico’s most indigenous and deprived states Oaxaca. The indigenous population of Mexico makes up roughly thirty percent of the population and a greater portion of the illiterate sector of society. Historically they have occupied the lower classes of Mexico’s largely colonial based social structure. Add the last fifteen years of NAFTA initiated deregulation of foreign corporate investment to the cauldron and the fact that many of the limited benefits are actually being enjoyed by the northern most states along the U.S. border. There is an atmosphere as in Oaxaca that is reminiscent of the revolution of 1910 where many of Mexico’s poorest and most indigenous states erupted into violence and the formation of the first EZLN or Zapatista Army of National Liberation. The governor of Oaxaca Gov. Ulises Ruiz at this point failed to recognize the situation brewing there and chose to go the capitol in support of his party’s candidate Felipe Calderon instead of staying in his home states capitol for the annual negotiation with the teachers union and then challenging them to take over the city. Generally a symbolic gesture this years gathering turned volatile and violent with a take over by 30,000 demonstrating teachers and their supporters of the zocalo or central plaza in Oaxaca City, the capitol of the state. The demonstrations grew to include all segments of Oaxaca’s indigenous working class reaching non-teachers as well. This was eventually put down in a controversial police offensive ending in the deaths and disappearance of protesters.   

    These combined controversies of a questionable election, which is still in contention, dividing the country by class  and the ill treatment of protesting teachers and supporters has shook the already delicate stability of it’s government. This has moved Mexico into a similar position with many of its Latin American neighbors whom have as of late elected left leaning candidates into office and taken a more antagonistic stance towards the U.S. and its economic policies.

   I hope to gain a better understanding of the possibilities socially, economically and culturally of this new and growing development in Mexico. I hope to highlight the critical role of relations between the U.S. and Mexico for the future of both countries. I will explain the significance American class structure and its perception by Mexican citizens in their homeland has on class struggle in modern Mexican society. Through this research paper I will be able to gauge how extensive each one of these questions posed has become in the eyes of Mexican immigrants to the U.S.A.

 

    Currently the crisis in Mexico is still very recent though the factors contributing to its pervasiveness have been brewing for years and even generations when considering the historical influences of colonialism and class struggle. Many sociologists and political scientist in the U.S. have yet to take notice of the crisis brewing south of our border. Since this issue has only come to a head in the last 6 months most of the body of information and research has been done by journalist and news agencies. However I have found three books documenting the instability and corruption of the Mexican political system that have been published in the last 2 years. One book researches the line of succeeding elected presidents in Mexico and how they are chosen and groomed for leadership. A second book is written by the leader of the EZLN or “Zapatistas” movement in Mexico. It documents their concern for the direction of Mexico’s current political system and the role of leftist indigenous movements such as theirs in the event that a revolution should occur. The third book is a critical investigation of the Mexican presidential campaign for the election of 2000. It describes the pivotal and momentous point which Mexican society had reached by the time of the election and the feeling of hope associated with the candidates and results of this election which stand in stark contrast to the anticlimactic sentiment of the last presidential election of 2006.

         The most relevant research thus far completed on this topic has been done by major news organizations such as Reuters, MacLean’s, and CNN. Journalist for Periodicals such as the Washington Post, The  Economist, USA TODAY, The National Catholic Reporter, The LA Times, The New York Times, and numerous independent internet blogs such as Truthout.org have kept the most accurate and objective accounts of ongoing developments. These accounts seem to be in agreement that Mexico is in crisis and that U.S. leadership should be paying better attention to what is unfolding so close to our borders. These articles seem to be closest in theme and nature to the overall objective of my research paper.

       All of the indicators I have been able to gather from my research thus far points to a volatile class struggle that has become violent and divisive. I believe that cultural influences though the media of American pop culture and values has contributed to the ever growing class divide in Mexico. I believe the theoretical and methodological frameworks of Neo-Marxian Theorist Antonio Gramsci and Neo-Marxian Economic Sociological theories proposed by Baran and Sweezy are most suited for the process of data analysis and interpreting my findings.

       As to the collection of quantitative and qualitative data I plan to use the journal and periodical articles I have researched so far in combination with three books recently published on the Mexican political system. This data is most useful because it is current and journalistic first or second hand information gathered at the scene of the conflict. Statistical information at this point has yet to be compiled because of the recentness of the crisis, so only election statistics gathered from the latest Mexican election in June through September 2006 will be considered for this paper. Other forms of quantitative data considered for research will be crowd estimates and death tolls documented in the articles listed in the citations. Qualitative data will include reports by credible news agencies and interviews with important figure in this crisis as well as first hand accounts of protesters and observers of the protests. All of this statistical data and qualitative data can be collected in the articles, books and periodicals I have gathered thus far.

 

       I anticipate my research will confirm my hypothesis that the relationship between both countries is crucial to each, that American culture has a significant role and influence on modern Mexican Society and that the crisis in Mexico will spill over into the Mexican communities here in the U.S. on a social and cultural level. I anticipate for the short term that the number of immigrants attempting to cross the border into the U.S. will increase, that the ruling party and administration in MexicoMexico followed by economic depression. will be toppled and that there will be social and political unrest in

        Since the subject of my research is a recent and developing event I realize that much of the data is still being collected, analyzed and authenticated. However the credibility of the data providers is high and these news agencies are well known and established. The research is also limited by distance from the actual events and a lack of priority on these events for academic research. Academic journals will undoubtedly study this social and political crisis after the results have been reached but that information will not be available until an undetermined date in the future. I think the use of books regarding the ongoing inequalities present in Mexican society and politics will provide useful reference tools and resources from which to draw comparisons and prove causality.

 

References

Articles

1. Grillo, I. (2006, Jan. 01). Zapatisitsas Leave Jungle for Tour of Mexico. The Associated Press

2. Vincent, I., (2006, Apr.  03). Viva Obrador . Maclean’s

3. Roig-Franzia M., (2006, July 04). Mexico Girds for Legal Battle as Election Yields a Near Tie. The Washington Post  

4. Roig-Franzia M. (2006, July 09,). Lopez Obrador Alleges Vote Was Rigged The Washington Post

5. Roig-Franzia, M. (2006, July 17). Lopez Obrador Urges Civil Resistance.The Washington Post

6. Tobar, H & Bourdeaux R,( 2006, July08). Leftist to Seek Recount in Mexican Election. The Los Angeles Times

7. Roig-Franzia M. (2006, July 25). In Mexico, Strains Along Democracy’s Path. The Washington Post

8. Dickerson, M. (2006, July 07). PRD Backers Left Feeling Cheated The Los Angeles Times

9. Tobar, H. (2006, July 07 ). Confusion Grips Mexico Election The Los Angeles Times

10. Wiesbrot, M. (2006, June 27). Their Brand Is Crisis The Center for Economic Policy Research

11.Wiesbrot M. (2006, July 09). Would the Left Be Better for Mexico? The Center for Economic Policy Research,

12. Tobar, H. (2006, July 12) Harvest of Discord From a Rural Tally The Los Angeles Times

13. Thompson, G. (2006, July 11)Leftist Screens Videos He Says Prove Fraud in Mexico Vote The New York Times

14. Grandin, G. (2006, July 8 ) How to Be a Good Neighbor The New York Times

15. Weissert W. (2006, Sep. 05) Calderon Becomes Mexican President-Elect The Associated Press  

16.  Tuckman J. ( 2006, Sep. 06) Protesters Defiant as Conservative Wins Mexico Poll The Guardian UK

17. Garza Rosa A. (2006, Oct.) Not Backing Down The New Internationalist

18. Cornell D. (2006, Oct. 13) Community Rallies Around Teachers The National Catholic Reporter

19. Randewich N.  (2006, Oct. 29) Riot Police Advance on Mexico’s Violent Oaxaca Reuters

 20. Randewich N. (2006, Oct. 29) Riot police hold off offensive in Mexico’s Oaxaca Reuters

21. Enriquez S. & Johnson R. (2006, Oct. 30) Mexican Polixce Storm Protesters in Oaxaca The Los Angeles Times

22. Randewich N. (2006, Oct. 30) Mexico police tighten grip on violence-torn Oaxaca Reuters

23. Harrington P.  (2006, Nov. 03 )Revolt in Oaxaca May Force Calderon to Wage an Income-Gap Fight Bloomberg

24. Stern B. (2006, Nov. 09 ) What do the Oaxaca Rebels Want? Le Nouvel Observateur 

 

Books

1. Marcos, Subcommandante. Apr. 2006. The Other Campaign: The Zapatista Call for Change from Below. City Light Open Media Series

2. Dominguez, Jorge I. Jan. 2004. Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidates, Votes and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, Stanford University Press

3. Castaneda, Jorge G. Nov. 2001. Perpetuating Power: How Mexican Presidents Were Chosen.The New Press

Blogs

1. Mexico Election Vote Count Begins Today Under Cloud of Uncertainty (http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/printer_070506R.shtml.)

2. Report on Key Economic Issues in Mexico’s Election